"Go figure" is an expression of confusion.  Something happens that doesn't make a lot of sense?  Go figure.  Someone charged with upholding the law breaks the law?  Go figure. 

The equity market goes up one day on optimism about the eurozone debt crisis and down the next day on pessimism about the eurozone debt crisis?  Go figure.

It is not a stretch to say that this is a confused market right now. 

Everyone is trying to figure out what comes next.  The ponderables are many and the tenor of the stock market right now suggests there is little confidence in any position. 

Fittingly, with less than three weeks left in the year, the S&P 500 is close to unchanged for 2011.  To be precise, it is down 1.7% year-to-date, yet it is indicated to open about 0.6% higher this morning.

The performance of the U.S. market has actually been a stellar performance compared to most other markets (China -30%; Japan -16%; India -22%; Germany -16%; Brazil -17%; and Australia -12%). 

Still, it is cold comfort for most investors to hear that the relative strength of the U.S. market is couched in terms of it being down less than other markets.  After all, the purpose of stock investing is not to lose capital -- however small that loss might be -- it is to achieve a return on capital. 

A lot can change in three weeks of course -- or even in a single week for that matter.  In other words, this year is a long way from being over. 

Money managers competing against benchmarks know this, and given the extreme volatility in recent weeks, they are probably being forced to be more (re)active than they might otherwise be this time of year.  That could explain some of the chop we are seeing.

For now, the chop is favoring an upside move at the open. 

A better-than-expected auction of short-term Spanish debt, rumors China might announce a sizable cut in its required reserve ratio, and word that Congress has reached a tentative deal to keep the government funded through the end of the fiscal year have provided some support this morning that has offset a disappointing earnings report from Best Buy (BBY) and lower-than-expected retail sales results for November.

An important distinction with retail sales is that they were lower than expected, but they were not weak.  Retail sales increased 0.2% in November (Briefing.com consensus +0.6%) on top of an upwardly revised 0.6% increase in October.  Excluding autos, retail sales jumped 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus +0.5%) on top of a 0.6% increase in October.

There will be a tendency to draw attention to declines in several areas (building materials, food and beverage, health and personal care, miscellaneous store retailers, and food services and drinking places), although it would be remiss not to add that the declines in these categories all followed increases in October.

Conversely, a 0.5% increase in clothing and clothing accessories stores came on the heels of a 0.8% decline in October.

Core retail sales, which exclude autos, building materials, and gasoline station sales, rose 0.2%. 

The S&P futures market took the retail sales headline disappointment in stride and is near its best levels of the morning.  If you're thinking, "go figure," you're probably not alone.  

This is a market that is both confounding and convincing on any given day and with any given data point.

As a reminder, the FOMC decision, which we discussed yesterday, will be announced at 2:15 p.m. ET.

--Patrick J. O'Hare, Briefing.com

Patrick J. O'Hare is Chief Market Analyst for Briefing Research, Briefing.com's institutional research service. To request a free trial, please email researchsales@briefing.com.